冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2、SARS-CoV和MERS-CoV的传染动力学分析

Analysis of Spread Dynamics of Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV

  • 摘要: 为了分析比较COVID-19、SARS和MERS这3种传染性疾病的传染动力学,该文通过传染病增长率和传染抑制常数,建立了传染病的传播增长模型,然后通过非线性拟合得到SARS-CoV-2、SARS-CoV和MERS-CoV这3种冠状病毒传播增长模型的参数。分析表明,SARS-CoV-2的增长率约为SARS-CoV和MERS-CoV病毒的两倍,SARS-CoV-2的倍增周期为2~3天。湖北的传染抑制常数比其他地区低两个数量级,与湖北地区的现状吻合。

     

    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread dynamics of COVID-19, SARS and MERS. Based on the growth rate and infection inhibition constant of infectious diseases, the propagation growth model of infectious diseases is established, and then the parameters of the propagation growth model of three coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, are obtained by nonlinear fitting. The analysis shows that the growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 is about twice that of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the doubling period of SARS-CoV-2 is two to three days. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei province is two orders of magnitude lower than that in other areas, which is consistent with the situation in Hubei.

     

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