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亚当·斯密在《国富论》中提出了一个重要的观点:在一切改良中,以交通运输的改良最为有效。这揭示了交通建设对经济发展的重要性,也暗示实现快速交通将深远地影响经济发展。技术进步促进交通工具革新,现代铁路,尤其是高速铁路,已经扮演着举足轻重的角色。根据国际铁路联盟(international union of railways, UIC)定义,高速铁路(high-speed railway, 简称高铁)是指新线设计时速250 km以上的铁路,升级原有线路且运营时速达到200 km以上的铁路,以及高速动车等元素组成的系统。中国国家铁路局定义的高铁,是指设计开行时速250 km (含预留)及以上;初期运营时速不小于200 km的客运专线铁路。自20世纪以来,高铁作为一种快捷、安全、绿色环保的交通工具,受到了世界各国的关注。世界上第一条高铁(长度为515 km,最高时速210 km)于1964年在日本开通运行,取得了显著的经济效应[1]。目前,比利时、荷兰等国家和地区基本完成了高铁网络建设;西班牙、意大利、法国等国家和地区完成了大部分高铁网络建设;英国、韩国、中国等国家和地区正在大规模扩建高铁;一些东欧、亚洲等国家和地区正在计划建设高铁。我国现拥有世界上最长运营里程和最大规模的高铁系统。截至2019年底,我国高铁运营里程达到3.5万km。
高铁作为基础设施之一,是政策制定者直接刺激经济发展的一种方式,也是政策制定者促进经济一体化发展的一种手段[2]。高铁对社会和经济发展的影响,一直是相关政策制定者和研究者关注的话题。评估方法大致分为两类:一类是事前预估(Ex-ante)[3],由于修建、维护和运营高铁的成本高昂且不可逆,因此预估高铁能否带来足够的经济效益变得非常重要;另一类是事后评估(Ex-post)[3],合理分析高铁对区域人口流动、就业情况、产业发展等经济方面的影响,明确高铁的积极和消极影响,便于为区域经济发展制定相应规划,优化资源配置,以应对高铁带来的机会和挑战。
自2008年以来,随着中国高铁的大规模扩张,关于高铁的社会经济影响的研究与日俱增。因此,本文系统梳理了近年来高铁影响社会经济发展的相关文献,特别强调高铁对经济发展若干要素、经济空间结构和不同产业板块的影响,并在文末讨论了高铁可能带来的负面影响以及未来可研究的若干开放性问题。
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影响经济发展的因素不胜枚举,本节将介绍过往研究关注较多、受高铁影响比较明显的四个方面:区域可达性、人口流动、劳动就业和生产率。
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可达性是指一个地点到达另外一个地点的难易程度,可用时间成本和运输费用量化[6],常用于刻画该地点与周边区域建立社会经济联系的便捷程度。一般来说,两地之间互达的难易程度是对称的,即区域可达性存在对称性,因此通常使用同一个指标衡量区域作为出发地和目的地的交通通达程度。如果涉及非对称的准入限制(常在国家间存在),则可达性也可能是非对称的。以加权平均旅行时间为代表的指标,用于评价区域在时间和费用成本上的交通优势。以日常可达性和经济潜力为代表的指标,衡量的是该区域的辐射能力和吸引力。
加权平均旅行时间是指特定区域到达所有规定终点的加权旅行时间:
$$ {T_i} ={{\displaystyle\sum\limits_j {{M_j}{t_{ij}}} }}\Big/{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_j {{M_j}} }} $$ 式中,
${T_i}$ 值越小,表明目的地$i$ 越容易接近,可达性就越高;${M_j}$ 表示区域$j$ 的经济发展水平,通常采用人口或GDP来估算;${t_{ij}}$ 为区域$i$ 到区域$j$ 的最短旅行时间[7-8]。日常可达性反映区域在既定时间内的通达能力:
$$ {\rm{D}}{{\rm{A}}_i} = \sum\limits_j {{M_j}{\delta _{ij}}} $$ 式中,
${\delta _{ij}}$ 取值为0或1。如果区域$i$ 能在既定时间内到达区域$j$ ,则取值为1;否则,取值为0[8]。经济潜力,也称市场潜力或潜在可达性,表示区域可获取的经济活动或市场机会:
$$ {P_i} = \sum\limits_j {\frac{{{M_j}}}{{d_{ij}^\alpha }}} $$ 式中,
${P_i}$ 值越大,说明区域$i$ 的区位吸引力越大;${d_{ij}}$ 通常与区域$i$ 到区域$j$ 所需要花费的成本直接相关,诸如旅行时间、地理距离和出行成本;$\alpha $ 是距离摩擦参数,常取值为1[7-9]。可达性的空间分布情况可通过变异系数衡量,值越大表示可达性分布越极化,公式如下:
$$ {\rm{CV}} = {{\sigma \displaystyle\sum\limits_i {{M_i}} }}\Big/{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_i {{A_i} \times {M_i}} }} $$ 式中,
${A_i}$ 指区域$i$ 的可达性大小;$\sigma $ 指可达性指标${A_i}$ 的标准偏差[7-9]。大量学者从不同空间尺度和不同时间阶段,横向和纵向对比了有无高铁对总体可达性的影响。研究结果表明,随着高铁网络的扩张,区域总体的可达性得到了提高,可达性的空间分布也在发生变化。特别地,我国高铁网络的发展很不平衡,政府优先考虑东部地区,其次是中、西部地区。在2008−2015年间,虽然西部和西南地区可达性有所提高,但相比于东部,其可达性水平很低[9],且西部地区的可达性发展极其不平衡[8]。在2004−2018年,韩国高铁网络的发展减小了总体的可达性差距,但可达性分布的公平性并不高[7]。在1990年,西班牙尚未开通高铁,其可达性的CV值为0.39。如果西班牙实现2005−2020年的高铁规划,其可达性的CV值将下降0.09,但有些地区仍存在可达性的极化现象[10]。
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高铁从交通供给侧的时间成本和价格成本两方面影响需求侧的旅客对出行交通工具的选择。高铁开通后,压缩了时空距离,重新塑造了人的时空观念,进而扩大了人口流动的范围,提高了人口流动的频率,聚焦了人口流动的方向(涌向高铁网络中的枢纽城市),使得人口在高铁沿线的大城市聚集。
高铁对劳动力流动的影响大体上可以总结为三个方面。1) 高铁整体上促进了劳动力的跨区域流动。文献[11]采用2002−2014年西班牙省域层面的劳动力合同数据,探讨了高铁与劳动力迁移的关系。研究发现,影响流动的重要因素包括失业率、房价、两省之间的通勤时间和高铁站位置,其中后两个因素都与高铁直接相关。2) 高铁影响了劳动力的就业地点范围和居住范围。为了评估旅行时间减少对德国工人通勤数量的影响,文献[12]融合1999−2010年列车时刻表、火车站开通信息、就业研究所提供的工人各项信息和德国统计局数据,采用了引力模型[13]建立通勤时间和通勤人数的数量关系,发现通勤时间每减少1%,工人通勤数量增加约0.25%。3) 高铁改变了劳动力流动方向。高铁站往往建在经济相对发达的城市,受工资、就业机会等因素的影响,人才往高铁城市迁移[14]。
许多研究表明高铁开通后,人口进一步在大城市聚集,人口的空间分布也因此发生变化。高铁连接韩国的首尔和釜山后,人口逐渐在首尔聚集,同时经济活动在往外扩散[15]。在日本,新干线的建设不能有效地将经济发达区域的人口分散到外围[16]。文献[17]对1980−2003年日本年居住人口数据进行分析,发现东北和上越线导致外围人口平均减少了3%~6%,但促进了距离东京中心133 km范围内的人口增长。进一步分析年龄异质性,发现高铁明显促进了工人(年龄介于15~64岁)往东京迁移,但老年人(年龄超过64岁)几乎不随孩子迁移。在2009−2013年期间,“武汉−广州”高速铁路沿线大城市的人口复合年增长率增加了200.96%,而中小城市仅增加了3.45%[18]。类似地,文献[19]通过分析2006−2015年正在经历人口流失城市的城市人口面板数据,发现高铁加剧了一些工业竞争力较差的三四线城市的人口流失,尤其是在连接入高铁网络的第四年和第五年。
高铁作为区域间的一种纽带,促进了人口流动和聚集,引起人力资本、生产要素、市场需求等资源在高铁沿线和“核心−外围”空间上的重新分布,从而驱动经济的增长和经济结构的调整。高铁缩短了中小城市与大城市的时空距离,在大城市的竞争压力下,中小城市面临着劳动力流失的风险,这是高铁产生负面效应的主要原因之一。
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高铁不仅会增加与高铁服务直接相关的就业岗位,更重要的是,还可以通过各种间接方式作用于劳动力的需求侧和供给侧,大幅度增加就业岗位[20]。图2概括了高铁对就业影响的机理[21]。从供给看,区域可达性得到改善,人们拥有更多的工作和居住选择,进而增加城市的劳动力数量。从需求看,高铁不仅能通过提升铁路运输效率,有效地降低企业的运输成本,有助于扩大市场规模,还给城市带来新企业的投资、入驻、合作等经济活动,由此增加劳动力需求量。
已有一些研究通过投入产出模型和一般均衡模型估计了新建高铁带来的福利。文献[22]预测了投资高铁建设引起的经济收益,研究结果显示,如果把2010年视为基准年,在韩国世宗投资新建一条18.044 km的高速铁路,将促进与之直接和间接相关的产业产生超过16.71亿美元的经济产出和3700万美元的直接收入。引入新高铁线路,预计带来14.5万个工作岗位,其中建筑业、房地产和商业服务业、制造业在新增就业岗位中的占比分别是27.73%、17.53%和15.66%。文献[23]预估了6种交通场景在2020年产生的就业和福利效益。结果发现,如果荷兰政府决定在Hanze线、Zuiderzee线上运行高速列车,将分别引起约2 900个和4 700个工作岗位的重新分布。他们还指出,由于运输成本的降低,引起商品价格和中间投入价格的下降,将给消费者带来福利,相当于GDP增长66~389百万欧元。还有一些研究就高铁对就业的影响进行了事后评估。文献[24]利用双重差分模型(difference-in-differences, DID)分析了2003−2014年中国城市就业面板数据,发现高铁平均增加了7%的就业人数。文献[21]利用双重差分倾向得分匹配(propensity score matching and difference-in-differences, PSM-DID)分析了中国2007−2014年城市就业面板数据,发现高铁增大了一线和二线城市的就业密度,抑制了三线及以下城市的就业。
高铁对就业的影响因地理区位而异。文献[17]分析了1980−2000年之间的日本就业数据,发现东北和上越线导致东京外围区域的制造业就业量增加了21%,其作用区域为距离东京111 km的范围外;高铁还提高了核心区域的服务业就业水平,其作用区域为距离东京171 km的范围内。另外,高铁对不同产业的影响存在较大差异性,其中服务业最为敏感。在第三产业中,高铁建设与依赖频繁交流的行业的就业呈正相关,如消费性服务业中的批发零售、住宿餐饮业、娱乐、旅游、房地产行业和生产性服务业中的信息、软件、金融行业[21,24]。
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由于高铁能减少区域间的通勤时间,工人更容易从生产率较低的工作转向生产率较高的工作[25],在提高收入的同时,还能积累知识和技术。企业则从中获得人力资本和物质资本,提升资源的占有率和使用率。这些因素能够帮助区域提升劳动生产率。
针对日本高铁,文献[26]通过混合效应模型、随机效应模型和固定效应模型,分析了可达性对劳动生产率的影响,结果表明,可达性显著性提高了劳动生产率。为了排除公路和航空的影响,还模拟了有无高铁情况下的生产率。研究发现,高铁对提高沿线县的生产率做出了贡献,特别是位于大城市连线上的各个县,主要是因为高铁增加了它们与大城市接触、交流和合作的机会。文献[27]评估了马德里和巴塞罗那之间的高铁对经济的影响,发现高铁站所在省份的企业数量平均增加了3.3%,劳动生产率平均提高了1.1%。文献[28]发现高铁提高了连接省份的产业相似性和共有产业的生产率。文献[29]应用2003−2013年中国工业企业数据库,选取企业人均销售额为企业生产率的代理变量,考察了高铁开通带来市场准入的提升对城市企业生产率的影响。市场准入能反映一个城市通过交通基础设施与周边城市建立起的经济活跃度。城市
$i$ 的市场准入定义为:$$ {\rm{M}}{{\rm{A}}_{i,t}} = \sum\limits_{j \ne i} {{M_{j,t}}f( {{D_{ij,t}}} )} $$ 式中,
${M_{j,t}}$ 表示终点城市$j$ 在时刻$t$ 的人口或GDP;$f( {{D_{ij,t}}} )$ 是关于地理距离或旅行时间的衰减函数。研究发现,与非高铁城市相比,高铁对核心城市(省会城市、直辖市、副省级城市、经济特区城市和计划单列市)的企业生产率的平均影响为1.38%,而对外围城市的企业生产率的平均影响为−8.45%。在位置层面,市场准入对企业生产率的影响,在距离核心城市20~40 km范围内是正向的;在40~300 km里内是负向的;在300 km外,负面影响消失或不显著。进一步分析显示,高铁提升了核心和外围城市的企业资源匹配率,这表明高铁的资源“分配效应”在核心和外围区域都表现为促进作用。与此同时,高铁促进了人口在城市间的流动,导致了人力资源和固定资产投资向核心城市聚集,这表明高铁的资源“分布效应”在外围区域表现为抑制作用。总结起来,高铁主要通过以下三个途径提高经济生产率。1) 加快经济要素的流动,从而减少企业成本支出和资金流失。文献[30]应用2007−2013年工业企业年度调查数据库进行实证研究,发现高铁降低了企业9.5%的库存支出。2) 促进信息的透明化,减少企业决策的信息摩擦,提高企业与企业的匹配效率,进而帮助企业寻找最佳的供应商和更好的投资机会[31]。文献[32]应用2004−2015年中国企业注册数据集,探究了高铁对企业投资的影响,发现高铁平均增加了城市间8%投资匹配数量和45.5%投资额,并且高铁显著性地影响了核心往外围和外围城市之间的投资。3) 通过加快人才流动、改善信息环境、缓解融资约束等方式,增加企业的创新投入和产出[33]。
Impact of High-Speed Railway on Economic Development
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摘要: 高铁与社会经济发展的关系受到了学术界和政府部门的共同关注。该文系统地综述了近年来有关高铁影响经济发展的理论和实证研究。一方面,总结了高铁影响经济发展的理论机制,回顾了高铁对可达性、人口流动和聚集、劳动力就业、生产率等方面的影响,突出介绍了高铁对经济空间结构的影响。另一方面,总结了高铁对产业的影响和对区域经济增长的影响。在此基础上,讨论了高铁可能带来的负面效应,并提出了相应的政策建议。最后就研究内容提出了一些建议。Abstract: Both academia and government have shown an increasingly common interest in the relationship between the high-speed railway and socioeconomic development. This paper provides a systematic review of the recent theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of the high-speed railway on economic development. On the one hand, we summarize theoretical mechanisms that underline how high-speed rail affects economic development and review studies that explored the influence of high-speed rail on accessibility, population mobility and agglomeration, labor employment, and productivity. In particular, we focus on how high-speed rail affects the structure of the spatial economy. On the other hand, we summarize the effect of high-speed rail on industry and regional economic growth, based on which we further discuss the possible negative effects of introducing high-speed rail and provide some potential policy recommendations. At last, we suggest some promising research questions for future studies.
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