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近年来,随着对复杂网络科学认识的深入,科学家们发现很多的真实系统都可以用多层网络结构进行更精确的描述。例如,人际关系网中的线下朋友关系以及线上朋友关系等;不同运输工具(航空网、铁路网和公路网)构成的交通网络等。因此关于多层网络的结构及动力学的研究已经成为网络科学领域的一个研究热点和重点[1-11]。
传染性疾病的爆发会引发相关的信息通过人群内部、新闻媒介以及在线社交网络等多种渠道传播,而人们获得该信息后会警觉且采取一定的预防措施自我保护,从而对疾病传播产生深远的影响。已有学者在研究传染病动力学的时候开始从不同角度考虑信息因素的影响,如:个体根据对疾病信息的了解程度来调整与外界的接触情况[12],个体行为方式的改变[13],人群内部、新闻媒介以及在线社交网络传播信息对疾病传播的影响[14];文献[15]基于传统的“S(susceptible)-I(infected)-S(susceptible)”疾病传播模型,考虑了节点会通过邻居的感染状况而出现警惕状态,而警觉态易感者被感染的概率显然和易感态不同,提出了S(susceptible)-A(aware)-I(infected)-S(susceptible)”模型,但其模型的研究局限于单个网络,没有考虑警惕信息的传播问题;文献[16]又研究了信息传播对疾病传播的影响,并找出在不同网络拓扑下最理想的信息传播机制;文献[17]在双层网络中研究疾病和信息两类传播动力学的相互作用,揭示信息传播对疾病传播及传播阈值的影响;文献[18]进一步研究了一种局部警觉控制传染模型(LACS),其中当节点的警惕邻居数目与信息层节点度的比值达到局部警惕率或已被疾病感染,才能变成警惕态传播警惕信息;文献[19]研究了双层网络上具有自激发和扩散机制的警觉行为对传播动力学的影响;文献[20]考虑了双层网络上个体的异质性对警惕信息传播动力学的影响等。
之前基于双层网络对疾病传播与警觉意识扩散的研究多存在一个普遍性假设:在同一时刻警觉意识先传播,疾病后传播。虽然信息传播途径广一些,传播也更加便利一些,但是并非所有情况都如此。比如有些疾病虽然已经在人群中传播,但由于疾病的外部表现不容易被发现或者危险性没有引起充分注意,可能导致警觉不能快速传播。再比如,对于有些疾病而言,感染疾病的人不太愿意告诉他人自己的得病情况(比如性病等),因此警觉也不能快速传播。故与之前的研究都不同,本文摒弃之前的假设,而是认为警觉意识与疾病的传播是不分先后次序的,进而比较两种机制对传播阈值和传播范围的影响。
Effects of the Order of Awareness Diffusion and Disease Propagation on the Spreading Dynamics
doi: 10.12178/1001-0548.2019163
- Received Date: 2019-07-11
- Rev Recd Date: 2019-11-07
- Available Online: 2020-05-28
- Publish Date: 2020-05-01
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Key words:
- awareness diffusion /
- epidemic threshold /
- infectious diseases /
- two-layer networks
Abstract: Recently, studies on the interaction between disease transmission and awareness transmission based on two-layer networks have attracted much attention. Within such a framework, infectious disease is propagated through physical contact networks, while the diffusion of awareness is transmitted through virtual contact network. Moreover, the nodes on two layers are the same, but the edges connecting nodes in the two layers are different. Most of the existing models assume that the diffusion of awareness precedes the spread of disease (hereinafter referred to as ordered model). In real cases, it is difficult to distinguish the order of disease transmission from that of awareness diffusion, thus, this paper proposes a model without considering the order of two spreading processions (concurrent model for short). We find that the two models yield the same epidemic threshold, but have different influence on the spreading sizes. When the transmission rate of awareness is low, the epidemic size of concurrent model is smaller than that of ordered model. However, with the increase of the transmission rate of awareness, the result is reversed, that is, the epidemic size of the concurrent model is larger than that of ordered model.
Citation: | KAN Jia-qian, MA Chuang, ZHANG Hai-feng. Effects of the Order of Awareness Diffusion and Disease Propagation on the Spreading Dynamics[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2020, 49(3): 431-437. doi: 10.12178/1001-0548.2019163 |