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2020年1月31日,世界卫生组织宣布,新冠肺炎疫情构成全球突发公共卫生事件。在病毒传播过程中,挖掘疫情发展数据的内在规律,结合合理的理论模型进行预测,能够为疫情防控提供有价值的参考。
本文基于病毒传播初期过后的次指数增长现象[1],在指数增长微分方程的基础上,采用了一般形式的微分方程,并根据该一般方程的显式解,对疫情发展数据进行拟合。本文拟合的疫情发展数据来自国家卫生健康委员会的公开数据,包括2020年1月15日−2月15日全国累计确诊病例数、以及2020年1月23日−2月15日全国累计疑似病例数和全国累计密切接触人数。非线性拟合的结果与已发布数据高度吻合。在非线性拟合方程的基础上,本文给出了此后10日(2020年2月16日−2月25日)的趋势预测,为疫情防控提供参考。
Fitness of the Generalized Growth to the COVID-19 Data
doi: 10.12178/1001-0548.2020037
- Received Date: 2020-02-09
- Rev Recd Date: 2020-02-15
- Available Online: 2020-04-21
- Publish Date: 2020-05-01
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Key words:
- exponential growth /
- fitting /
- novel corona virus /
- nonlinear fitness /
- sub-exponential growth /
- sub-linear growth
Abstract: A generalized growth model is applied to fit the time series of cumulative confirmed cases between Jan. 15 to Feb. 15, 2020. Moreover, the same formula is also applied to the time series of cumulative susceptive cases and cumulative close contact cases from Jan. 23 to Feb. 15, 2020. The model tallies with data published by the National Health Commission. The sub-exponential and sub-linear growth reflect the time heterogeneity during the transmission of COVID-19, which provide the reference to the prediction of the growth trend of the transmission.
Citation: | ZHANG Lin. Fitness of the Generalized Growth to the COVID-19 Data[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2020, 49(3): 345-348. doi: 10.12178/1001-0548.2020037 |