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亚当·斯密在《国富论》中提出了一个重要的观点:在一切改良中,以交通运输的改良最为有效。这揭示了交通建设对经济发展的重要性,也暗示实现快速交通将深远地影响经济发展。技术进步促进交通工具革新,现代铁路,尤其是高速铁路,已经扮演着举足轻重的角色。根据国际铁路联盟(international union of railways, UIC)定义,高速铁路(high-speed railway, 简称高铁)是指新线设计时速250 km以上的铁路,升级原有线路且运营时速达到200 km以上的铁路,以及高速动车等元素组成的系统。中国国家铁路局定义的高铁,是指设计开行时速250 km (含预留)及以上;初期运营时速不小于200 km的客运专线铁路。自20世纪以来,高铁作为一种快捷、安全、绿色环保的交通工具,受到了世界各国的关注。世界上第一条高铁(长度为515 km,最高时速210 km)于1964年在日本开通运行,取得了显著的经济效应[1]。目前,比利时、荷兰等国家和地区基本完成了高铁网络建设;西班牙、意大利、法国等国家和地区完成了大部分高铁网络建设;英国、韩国、中国等国家和地区正在大规模扩建高铁;一些东欧、亚洲等国家和地区正在计划建设高铁。我国现拥有世界上最长运营里程和最大规模的高铁系统。截至2019年底,我国高铁运营里程达到3.5万km。
高铁作为基础设施之一,是政策制定者直接刺激经济发展的一种方式,也是政策制定者促进经济一体化发展的一种手段[2]。高铁对社会和经济发展的影响,一直是相关政策制定者和研究者关注的话题。评估方法大致分为两类:一类是事前预估(Ex-ante)[3],由于修建、维护和运营高铁的成本高昂且不可逆,因此预估高铁能否带来足够的经济效益变得非常重要;另一类是事后评估(Ex-post)[3],合理分析高铁对区域人口流动、就业情况、产业发展等经济方面的影响,明确高铁的积极和消极影响,便于为区域经济发展制定相应规划,优化资源配置,以应对高铁带来的机会和挑战。
自2008年以来,随着中国高铁的大规模扩张,关于高铁的社会经济影响的研究与日俱增。因此,本文系统梳理了近年来高铁影响社会经济发展的相关文献,特别强调高铁对经济发展若干要素、经济空间结构和不同产业板块的影响,并在文末讨论了高铁可能带来的负面影响以及未来可研究的若干开放性问题。
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