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LI Xing-yi, LI Kui, SHI Hua-ji, ZHOU Shuang-quan. Optimization of GM(1,1) Prediction Model Based on Background Value and Its Application[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2011, 40(6): 911-914. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-0548.2011.06.020
Citation: LI Xing-yi, LI Kui, SHI Hua-ji, ZHOU Shuang-quan. Optimization of GM(1,1) Prediction Model Based on Background Value and Its Application[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2011, 40(6): 911-914. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-0548.2011.06.020
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Optimization of GM(1,1) Prediction Model Based on Background Value and Its Application

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-0548.2011.06.020
  • 1.

    College of Computer,Jiangsu University Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013;

  • 2.

    China TransInfo Technology Corp Haidian Beijing 100086

  • Received Date: 2010-03-08
  • Rev Recd Date: 2011-06-09
  • Publish Date: 2011-12-15
  • According to the drawback of the background value in GM(1,1) model, a new method for computing background value is proposed which uses the non-homogeneous exponential law to fit the accumulated sequence in order to get the area where the practical curve is on as background value. Experiment by using traffic data of Shenzhen between 8:00 to 8:50 on October 9 and 10 in 2007 shows that fitting precision and prediction precision of the new reconstructing background value of GM(1,1) model are improved.
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  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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Optimization of GM(1,1) Prediction Model Based on Background Value and Its Application

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-0548.2011.06.020
  • 1. College of Computer,Jiangsu University Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013;
  • 2. China TransInfo Technology Corp Haidian Beijing 100086
  • Received Date: 2010-03-08
  • Rev Recd Date: 2011-06-09
  • Publish Date: 2011-12-15

Abstract: According to the drawback of the background value in GM(1,1) model, a new method for computing background value is proposed which uses the non-homogeneous exponential law to fit the accumulated sequence in order to get the area where the practical curve is on as background value. Experiment by using traffic data of Shenzhen between 8:00 to 8:50 on October 9 and 10 in 2007 shows that fitting precision and prediction precision of the new reconstructing background value of GM(1,1) model are improved.

LI Xing-yi, LI Kui, SHI Hua-ji, ZHOU Shuang-quan. Optimization of GM(1,1) Prediction Model Based on Background Value and Its Application[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2011, 40(6): 911-914. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-0548.2011.06.020
Citation: LI Xing-yi, LI Kui, SHI Hua-ji, ZHOU Shuang-quan. Optimization of GM(1,1) Prediction Model Based on Background Value and Its Application[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2011, 40(6): 911-914. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-0548.2011.06.020
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