基于深度高斯过程的飞行冲突探测方法研究

Study on Algorithm for Flight Conflict Detection Based on Deep Gaussian Process

  • 摘要: 为了更加准确地建立航班飞行轨迹的时序特征,该文引入了高斯过程预测航班飞行轨迹。考虑机动环境运动目标的非线性特征,将高斯过程与深度置信网络相结合形成深度高斯过程,将其用于预测航班飞行轨迹。同时基于预测的航班飞行轨迹,实现了概率型基于深度高斯过程的飞行冲突探测算法。在引入蒙特卡罗思想和马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗采样算法基础上,提出了求解冲突探测算法的方法。基于深度高斯过程的航班飞行轨迹预测方法不仅可以预测航班飞行的标称轨迹,还可以预测各时刻位置可信区间的概率分布,这些特征为概率型飞行冲突探测打下了良好的数据基础。通过真实历史数据的仿真实验说明,该算法较基线算法具有更高的精度和稳定性,将其应用到飞行冲突探测中可获得更低的虚警率和更多的预警时间提前量。

     

    Abstract: In order to build temporal features of flight trajectory accurately, the Gaussian Process (GP) is applied to predict the future flight trajectory. Meanwhile, considering the non-linearity characteristics of the aircraft during the high maneuverability motion, the GP is combined with the deep belief network to formulate the deep GP which is applied to flight trajectory prediction. Based on the predicted trajectory, the probabilistic flight conflict detection based on deep GP is proposed and implemented in this paper. The Monte Carlo simulation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling are proposed to compute the conflict probability for the proposed conflict detection method. Deep GP based flight trajectory approach can not only predict the nominal trajectory for aircraft, but also estimate the probabilistic distribution of the confidence interval for the predicted positions, which lays as solid data foundation for the conflict detection task. Experimental results on real data show that the proposed deep GP based trajectory prediction model can obtain higher accuracy and stability than that of baselines. In addition, by applying the predicted trajectory to the conflict detection algorithm, we can achieve the task with lower false alarm and longer warning time.

     

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