运用Dropout-LSTM模型的新冠肺炎趋势预测

COVID-19 Trend Forecasting by Using Dropout - LSTM Model

  • 摘要: 为提高新冠肺炎(COVID-19)趋势预测精度,该文提出一种运用Dropout技术的长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络预测新冠肺炎发展趋势的方法。该方法基于Python语言使用网络爬虫技术获取完整的国内新冠肺炎历史数据,提高数据采集效率的同时减少了主观原因导致的数据错误;因为新冠肺炎历史数据为时序性数据,为避免人为添加时间特征及充分挖掘较少时序数据之间的非线性关系,该文构建了层数更多的LSTM神经网络预测模型。随后在隐藏层中的非循环部分采用Dropout技术,对神经元进行随机概率失活,有效解决了深度学习的过拟合问题。最后用国内累计确诊、现有确诊和累计治愈人数对该方法进行验证,实验证明该方法可较精准预测新冠肺炎传播趋势。

     

    Abstract: To improve the accuracy of COVID-19 trend forecasting, a method of COVID-19 trend forecasting by using dropout and long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed. The method uses web crawler based on python to obtain complete domestic historical data of COVID-19, which improves the efficiency of data collection and reduces data errors caused by subjective reasons. To avoid adding time features artificially and explore the nonlinear relationship fully between the less data of COVID-19, the proposed model extends the layers of the deep learning network. Then, the dropout technique is applied to the non-circular part of each hidden layer to randomly deactivate neurons, preventing the neural network from overfitting. The experiment demonstrates that the method can predict the number of cumulative confirmed cases, current confirmed cases and recovered cases.

     

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