Simulation Risk Analysis Based on Influence Nets

A simulation risk analysis method based on influence nets is proposed for simulation risk quantitative analysis. The simulation risk description is improved for considering variety impact of simulation failure. The influence nets model of simulation risk analysis is established by taking failure modes, decision effect and impact levels as influence nets nodes. A method for determining influence nets parameters is designed to make the quantitative description of failure mode and causal relationship to be reality. An algorithm to calculate the causal strength is given. The semi-quantitative express of simulation risk analysis is carried out by introducing two-tuple linguistic to mass the analysis results. Finally, an example is given to prove the validity and feasibility of this method.