基于融合聚类和BKA-VMD-TCN-BiLSTM的短期光伏功率预测

Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on Fusion Clustering and BKA-VMD-TCN-BiLSTM

  • 摘要: 针对光伏系统功率输出因天气条件波动大且随机性强的特点,提出了一种基于高斯混合模型(Gaussian Mixture Model, GMM)融合的Kmeans聚类算法(简称GMKmeans)、黑翅鸢优化算法(Black-Winged Kite Algorithm, BKA)优化的变分模态分解(Variational Mode Decomposition, VMD)与时序卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Network, TCN)-双向长短期记忆网络(Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory, BiLSTM)相结合的短期光伏功率组合预测模型。首先通过GMKmeans聚类将原始光伏数据集分为晴天、阴天和雨天3种天气模式。在此基础上,引入BKA算法进行VMD参数的优化选择,利用优化后的VMD将光伏功率时间序列数据分解成多个本征模态函数(Intrinsic Mode Functions,IMF),确保模型能够更深入地理解和模拟光伏功率随时间演变的复杂模式。最后,对分解后的IMF进行TCN-BiLSTM组合模型预测,再将预测结果叠加重构,以实现对整体光伏功率输出的高精度预测。实验结果表明,该预测模型显著提升了光伏功率预测的准确性和有效性。

     

    Abstract: A short-term photovoltaic (PV) power prediction model combining Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) integrated Kmeans clustering algorithm (referred to as GMKmeans), Black-Winged Kite Algorithm (BKA) optimized Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN)-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) was proposed in response to the significant fluctuations and randomness of PV system power output due to weather conditions. The original PV data set was classified using the GMKmeans algorithm. On this basis, the BKA algorithm was introduced to optimize the selection of VMD parameters. The optimized VMD decomposed the PV power data into multiple Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs), allowing the model to deeply understand the complex patterns of PV power evolution over time. Finally, the TCN-BiLSTM model predicted the decomposed IMFs, and the prediction results were stacked and reconstructed to achieve high-precision prediction of PV power. Experimental results demonstrate that the model significantly improves the accuracy of PV power prediction, proving the method's effectiveness in addressing the challenges posed by the complexity of PV system output.

     

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