基于双注意力时空图卷积神经网络的4D轨迹预测方法研究

Dual-attention based spatio-temporal graph convolution network for 4D trajectory prediction

  • 摘要: 近年来,四维轨迹预测在空中交通管理系统中的重要性正在逐渐增加,以其为核心技术的冲突检测和解决、飞机异常行为监测、密集飞行区域管控等任务的智能化需求也在逐年上升。机场终端区和密集空域的状况错综复杂且不断变化,现有的方法无法充分捕捉这两个场景下飞机之间的相互作用关系。为了应对这些挑战,提出了基于双注意力的时空图卷积神经网络模型来充分提取飞机之间的潜在时空相关性。该模型利用自注意力机制对邻接矩阵进行重构以便更好的捕捉图节点之间的相关性,并通过图注意力计算提取节点之间的时空特征,最终生成预测轨迹的概率分布。实验结果表明,与现有主流算法相比,利用自注意力机制重构的邻接矩阵和图注意力网络可以随着网络训练不断地优化从而更好地反应节点之间的潜在关联,显著提升了四维轨迹预测结果的准确率。

     

    Abstract: The importance of four-dimensional (4D) trajectory prediction within air traffic management systems is on the rise. Key operations such as conflict detection and resolution, aircraft anomaly monitoring, and the management of congested flight paths are increasingly reliant on this foundational technology, underscoring the urgent demand for intelligent solutions. The dynamics in airport terminal zones and crowded airspaces are intricate and ever-changing; however, current methodologies do not sufficiently account for the interactions among aircraft. To tackle these challenges, we propose DA-STGCN, an innovative spatiotemporal graph convolutional network that integrates a dual attention mechanism. This model reconstructs the adjacency matrix through a self-attention approach, enhancing the capture of node correlations, and employs graph attention to distill spatiotemporal characteristics, thereby generating a probabilistic distribution of predicted trajectories. The experimental results indicate that compared with traditional algorithms, the adjacency matrix reconstructed using self-attention mechanism and Graph Attention Network can be continuously optimized with network training to better reflect the potential correlations between nodes, significantly improving the accuracy of 4D trajectory prediction results.

     

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