宏观信息对中国股票收益的影响

How Does Macroeconomic News Impact Stock Returns in China Stock Market

  • 摘要: 采用1996年1月至2002年8月之间的月宏观经济数据与股指为样本,运用VAR方法来研究中国股票市场受宏观经济信息影响的程度。研究表明中国股市的股票收益受宏观信息影响不超过30%,宏观经济变量对股票收益的影响不显著。

     

    Abstract: This paper uses monthly macroeconomic data and stock market indices from January 1996 to August 2002, and adopts vector autoregression method to study the fraction of the variation in stock returns that can be attributed to various types of macroeconomic news. The empirical results show that macroeconomic news can only explain about 30% of the variance in stock returns, and all the variables appear to have a less significant effect on stock returns.

     

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