简单平均组合预测有效性的应用分析

An Empirical Study of Efficiency of Averages of Forecasting

  • 摘要: 通过实例分析,说明了当序列模式变动较大时,简单平均组合预测模型相对于其他组合预测模型的优越性,并且基于样本段的拟合精度不足以说明组合预测模型的外推预测精度。文中的分析对于组合预测模型的选择和应用具有实际参考价值。

     

    Abstract: The advantages of averges of forecasting relative to other combining forecasts are illustrated by an empirical study.It is pointed out that the high accuracy of fitting is not sufficient for the high accuracy of combination forecasting when the mode of economic series is highly variable.The analysis in this paper is of importance to the selection and application of combination forecasting models.

     

/

返回文章
返回