复杂人流网络下的COVID-19传播模型

Spreading Model of the COVID-19 Based on the Complex Human Mobility

  • 摘要: 考虑复杂人流网络的统计特征和SI传播模型,该文基于实证数据构建了新型冠状病毒肺炎在湖北省和4个省传播和扩散的P-SI模型。基于实证数据的研究分析表明,P-SI模型能够根据各省感染COVID-19情况拟合每天新增感染人数的变化趋势。此外,P-SI模型能够根据4省2020年1月23日前的感染情况预测2020年1月24日后的每天新增感染人数。该模型有助于理解COVID-19的传播特性,为阻断传播源,遏制疫情扩散,制定有效的防控措施提供决策依据。

     

    Abstract: The statistical characteristics of the human mobility among different cities in the spreading of COVID-19 can be described by SI spreading model. P-SI models are presented to investigate how COVID-19 spreads or diffuses in Hubei and the other 4 provinces. Based on empirical data, some experiments are then conducted under the framework of the P-SI models. The experimental results demonstrate that the P-SI models can describe the number of daily new infected people caused by COVID-19 in Hubei and the other 4 provinces according to the empirical data. In addition, the P-SI models can also predict the number of daily new infected people in the other 4 provinces after 1/24 according to the empirical data before 1/23. The P-SI models are steps toward the understanding of COVID-19’s spreading characteristics, which provides supports to isolate the source of COVID-19, to prevent and slow down the spreading of COVID-19, and to roll out effective measures for COVID-19’s prevention and control.

     

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