基于流网络的“一带一路”贸易效应分析

Analysis of the Trade Effect of “Belt and Road” Based on Flow Network

  • 摘要: “一带一路”致力于实现地区的互联互通,共建贸易共同体,促进自由贸易和全球经济的包容性发展。该文基于开放的流网络模型,从社团结构和核心−边缘结构两个视角,对比了全球贸易网络和“一带一路”贸易网络,并将中美的经济结构与两种网络的差异进行了相关性分析。研究发现:1) 两种贸易网络的格局相对稳定,相对于全球贸易网络,“一带一路”贸易网络在社团分布中出现了地域不连续,体现出了“一带一路”倡议的部署;2) 贸易流网络的节点重要性排序具有幂律分布的特征,但两种网络的核心−边缘结构强弱程度有不同的变化;3) 中美两国的贸易强度、核心作用、经济实力都与贸易网络的全球化特征正相关,而不同发展程度国家的贸易强度与核心−边缘结构的相关性却存在着差异。

     

    Abstract: The “Belt and Road” is aimed to connect regions or countries, build a trading community and promote the free and inclusive development of the global economy. Based on the flow network model, this paper compares the global trade network with the “Belt and Road” trade network from two perspectives: community structure and core-edge structure, and describes the relationship between the economic structures of China and the United States and two networks’ differences by correlation analysis. The study found that: 1) the structures of the two trade networks are relatively stable. Compared with the global trade network, the “Belt and Road” trade network has regional discontinuities in the distribution of communities and reflects the strategic deployment of the “Belt and Road”; 2) the ranking of node’s coreness has the characteristics of power law distribution, but the core-edge structures of the two networks develop differently; 3) the trade strengths, corenesses, and economic strengths of China and the United States are all positively related to the trade network’s integrity, but the correlation between the trade intensity of the countries with different development levels and the core-edge structure is different.

     

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