肝癌转移相关基因预后模型的建立与验证

Construction and Validation of a Metastasis-Related Prognostic Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

  • 摘要: 肝细胞肝癌(HCC)是一种具有高侵袭性和转移性的恶性肿瘤。采用Cox分析和Lasso回归分析逐步建立基于转移相关基因的预测模型,分析了风险评分与HCC患者的生存和临床特性的关系。构建了包含4个转移相关基因的预后模型。在TCGA训练集中,低风险组HCC患者的风险评分更低,死亡病例数更少,5年生存率更高(P < 0.01),Cox分析表明该模型可独立于其他临床特征预测HCC患者的生存(P < 0.01),时间依赖性ROC曲线预测分析1年、2年和3年的AUC值均大于0.74。同时,验证集获得与训练集一致的模型评估结果。最后,构建了肝癌转移相关基因的预后模型,有望成为一个独立的因素对HCC患者预后进行预测判断。

     

    Abstract: Hepatocellular carcinoma is a malignant tumor with high aggressiveness and metastasis. This study aims to construct a predictive model based on metastasis-related genes (MTGs). Cox analysis and Lasso regression analysis were used to build the prognostic model, and the relationship between the risk score of this model and the survival and clinical characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients was analyzed. The results of the study constructed a prognostic model containing four MTGs. In the the cancer genome atlas (TCGA) training set, HCC patients in the low-risk group had lower risk scores, fewer deaths and higher 5-year survival (P < 0.01), Cox analysis showed that the model could predict survival of HCC patients independently of other clinical characteristics (P < 0.01), and the AUC values of 1-, 2- and 3-years were all greater than 0.74 in the time-dependent ROC curve prediction analysis. Meanwhile, the validation set also confirmed the above results. Taken together, we constructed a MTGs prognostic model and it was expected to be an independent prognostic factor for prognostic prediction judgment of HCC patients.

     

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