基于引力模型的城市外部经济环境影响分析

Influence Analysis of Urban External Economic Environmental Based on Gravity Model

  • 摘要: 作为现代经济增长的重要引擎,城市发展同时受到其内部动力学机制与城市间交互影响的驱动与制约。文章从经济连接性角度出发,基于引力模型的理论假设来近似定义各个城市所受到的来自其他城市的影响,构建出同城市自身经济没有直接关系的指标——“外部影响场强”来刻画影响城市发展的外部经济环境。一个城市所受的外部影响总场强F和该场强来源分布的Zipf指数α强烈正相关于该城市自身的经济规模,而城市经济总量的增长中超过50%比例可以被Fα的变化所描述,揭示出城市外部经济环境的变化对城市经济发展的强烈影响。通过分析Fα等指标的空间自相关性及其变化趋势,观察到不同层级的城市的局部空间自相关性变化趋势呈现显著的异质性,高层级城市趋向增强,而低层级城市趋于减弱;对比不同行政区的城市在局部空间自相关性变化趋势上的差异,发现人口较少、经济体量较小的行政区往往更倾向于集中发展少数城市。以上结果显示出,外部影响场强作为一个同城市自身经济无直接关系的指标,能够有效分离城市发展中所受到的内外部影响,深化对城市自身发展与其他城市的经济互动之间的关系的认知。

     

    Abstract: As one of the keys of economic growth, the development of cities is driven by city’s own factors and the interaction among cities. In this paper, from the perspective of economic connectivity and based on the hypothesis of the gravity model, an indicator f naming “the intensity of the external influence field” is constructed as a metric of the influence of each city from the other cities. For each city, the total value F of its f, as well as the Zipf’s exponent α of the distribution of f, is strongly and positively correlated to the city’s economy size, and more than 50% on the variation of city’s economy can be described by the changes of F and α, revealing the strong impact of city’s external economic environment on the development of city’s economy. Furthermore, from the spatial autocorrelation analysis of these external influence field indicators, we observed the remarkable heterogeneity on the trend of local spatial autocorrelations of cities at different levels, namely, the high-level cities tend to strengthen their local spatial autocorrelations but the lower-level cities tend to weaken the local spatial autocorrelations. By comparing the variation trend of local spatial autocorrelations of cities in different administrative regions, it is found that administrative regions with small population and small economic size tend to concentrate on the development of a few cities. These findings indicate that, as the indicators without any direct relationship to city’s own economy, F and α can efficiently separate the external economic influences and other influences on city to dig out the hidden patterns in city development, which is helpful in mining of the relationship between city development and the interaction of cities.

     

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