个人电脑电压暂降失效事件组合不确定性评估

Combined Uncertainty Evaluation of Personal Computer Failure Event Caused by Voltage Sag

  • 摘要: 提出一种基于混合熵的用户设备电压暂降失事件组合不确定性评估方法。在研究组合不确定性评估模型与算法的基础上,根据实测样本数据特征,将组合不确定性分解为随机性、模糊性以及两者的交叉不确定性。以PC为例,并考虑到PC机在电压暂降前可能处于全速、空载和正常等运行状态,暂降后可能出现完全死机、运算出错和“假死”等失效状态,利用该方法进行失效率评估,并与现有概率、模糊等评估法进行比较,结果证明,该方法可克服传统方法中存在的过估计或欠估计问题,结果更符合工程实际。

     

    Abstract: The paper proposes a method based on maximum hybrid entropy (MHE) to assess the uncertainty of equipment failure event caused by voltage sag. By considering the data characteristics of the tested samples, the combined uncertainty is decomposed into a random, a fuzzy, and a cross uncertainty. As a case study, PC is tested and assessed when it is in full speed, no-load and normal operation states. During voltage sags, PC is in different result states, such as completely crash, operating error, or false crash. The proposed method is applied to assess the failure rate and compared with existing probability methods and fuzzy methods. The results show that this method overcomes the disadvantages of over-estimating or low-estimating problem and it is more accurate in accord with the engineering practice.

     

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