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经济状况不仅影响着国防预算和产业投资等国家宏观战略决策,也关系到个人的生活标准和消费策略[1]。如何实时和准确地掌握当前经济发展状况,一直是困扰着经济学家和统计学家的难题[2]。传统经济学研究中,最为直接和普遍的方法是进行经济普查,再基于普查数据计算得到相应的宏观经济指标,如国民生产总值(GDP)[3]。然而,宏观经济指标计算所牵扯到的很多数据需要从各级政府收集和汇总,整个过程会耗费大量的时间、人力、物力和财力[2]。随着普查技术的提高,虽然经济统计速度加快,但仍然难以满足经济决策实时性的需求。
为了快速和有效地刻画当前经济发展状况,一些非直接经济指标已经被广泛采用,例如克强指数[4]、消费者价格指数(CPI)[5],生产者物价指数(PPI)[6],采购经理人指数(PMI)[7]和网络零售价格指数(淘宝CPI)[8]等。这些指标虽然行之有效,但也不可避免地存在各自的缺陷:克强指数只包含3个主要经济指标,忽略了农业和服务业,缺少对经济发展状况的全方位把握;CPI和PPI指数的计算过程非常复杂,并且依赖于长时间的数据收集;PMI指数主要关注制造业,计算结果与抽样方法密切相关;淘宝CPI指数仅仅反映中国网络消费状况,缺乏完整稳定的商品目录。在洞悉经济发展状况方面,迫切需要全面、快速和精准的新策略。
随着信息技术的革新,一方面经济发展促使人们使用互联网和电子信息产品在全球范围内获取和分享信息[9],另一方面高科技产品也忠实地记录下人们在社会经济系统中的大量行为数据[10]。这些海量非干预数据的开放和使用,可能会对社会经济研究产生深远影响[11]。事实上,已经有一些开创性的工作利用国际贸易、手机记录、社交媒体、互联网检索、银行转账等数据揭示区域经济发展状况,甚至提前预测一些关键经济指标[12]。与传统的经济普查相比,这些数据所涵盖社会经济系统的范围更广。全新的研究策略和方法,不仅极大节约了统计成本,而且可以支撑经济决策的及时性。
本文主要介绍社会经济系统中的大数据在揭示经济发展状况方面的具体应用,重点关注宏观经济结构的刻画和微观经济指标的关联分析。第1节简要介绍数据驱动的经济研究背景以及社会经济系统大数据。第2节主要介绍大数据在刻画宏观经济方面的相关工作,包括经济状况、产业结构、经济复杂性和新经济指数等。第3节主要介绍大数据用于分析和预测微观经济状况方面,包括财富状况、不平等性、物价指数和失业率等。第4节简述大数据在理解城市发展规律,改善经济发展平衡性和产业转型升级方面的可能帮助。最后,展望大数据在揭示经济发展状况方面的整个研究图景并勾勒未来的发展方向。
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